SOME RECENT REPORTS (2007)

Solar Generation IV: Solar electricity for over one billion people and two million jobs by 2020, Crispin Aubrey, ed. (Greenpeace International, 2007). Projects 180 GW of solar PV worldwide by 2030 (up from current 7.4 GW in 2007), with almost 800 million people obtaining their household electricity from grid-tied solar PV.

Global Wind 2006 Report, Global Wind Energy Council, 2007. Projects wind power globally will double by 2010, from 74 GW in 2006 to 150 GW in 2010.

COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW PAPER (2007) AND LITERATURE CITED

Renewable Energy Futures:  Targets, Scenarios, and Pathways
(full web-text and also free PDF download via "View/Print PDF" at upper right)

by Eric Martinot, Carmen Dienst, Liu Weiliang, and Chai Qimin, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 32 (2007), pp. 205-239. Reviews and synthesizes the results of published scenarios to 2030 and 2050 for the world, Europe, and selected countries. Focuses on the future shares of renewable energy (of primary energy, electricity, heating, or transport) shown in scenarios and poilcy targets. Provides a clear and detailed explaination of the two different (and equally valid) methodologies for measuring "share of primary energy from renewables" (the "IEA Method" and the "BP Method", also called the "substitution method"). Cites 143 references (also listed and linked below). Copyright 2007 Annual Reviews. Note: article link provides complimentary one-time access for personal use. Any further/multiple distribution, publication, or commercial usage requires permission from the Annual Reviews Permissions Department (permissions@annualreviews.org).

Introduction

1. BP. 2005/2006. Statistical Review of World Energy. London

2. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Renewables Information 2006. Paris

3. REN21 Global Policy Network. 2005. Renewables 2005 Global Status Report. Paris. [Annotation: A synthesis of the global market, investment, and policy situation with 320 references. Eric Martinot was lead author.]

4. REN21 Global Policy Network. 2006. Renewables Global Status Report 2006 Update. Paris

5. UN Dev. Programme, UN Dept. Econ. Soc. Aff., World Energy Counc. 2004. World Energy Assessment Overview: 2004 Update. New York

6. UN Dev. Programme, UN Dept. Econ. Soc. Aff., World Energy Counc. 2000. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. New York. [Annotation: A comprehensive reference on global energy issues.]

7. Johansson TB, McCormick-Brennan K, Neij L, Turkenburg W. 2004. The potentials of renewable energy . Proc. Int. Conf. for Renew. Energies, Bonn, Germany Eurosolar: Bonn.

8. Beck F, Martinot E. 2004. Renewable energy policies and barriers. In Encycl. Energy. San Diego: Academic Press/Elsevier Sci.

9. Geller H. 2003. Energy Revolution: Policies for a Sustainable Future. Washington, DC: Island Press.

10. Aiken DW. 2003. Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future (White Paper). Freiburg: Int. Solar Energy Soc.

11. Sawin JL. 2004. Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21st Century. Worldwatch Paper 169. Washington, DC: Worldwatch

12. Int. Energy Agency. 2007. Global renewable energy policies and measures database.

13. Int. Energy Agency. 2004. Renewable Energy: Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries. Paris

14. Int. Energy Agency. 2004. Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective. Paris

15. Int. Energy Agency. 2003. Renewables for Power Generation: Status and Prospects. Paris

16. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy in Europe: Building Markets and Capacity. London: James and James

17. EUREC Agency. 2002. The Future for Renewable Energy: Prospects and Directions. London: James and James

18. Johansson T, Turkenburg W. 2004. Policies for renewable energy in the European Union and its member states: an overview. Energy Sustain. Dev. 8(1):5-24

Global Scenarios

19. Greenpeace and European Renew. Energy Counc. 2007. Energy Revolution: a Sustainable World Energy Outlook 每 Global Report. [Annotation: A major global scenario effort integrating regional scenarios from around the world, with separate studies for U.S. and Europe available (see Refs. 45, 50).]

20. EC. 2006. World Energy Technology Outlook 每 2050. WETO 每 H2. Brussels.

21. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. World Energy Outlook 2006. Paris [Annotation: Widely-cited global energy scenarios, with general treatments and thematic ※insights§ alternating every other year.]

22. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. Paris. [Annotation: A comprehensive description and analysis of energy technologies and a much greater range of scenarios than found in Ref. 22.]

23. Global Wind Energy Counc. and Greenpeace. 2006. Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006. Brussels

24. Hawksworth J. 2006. The World in 2050 每 Implications of Global Growth for Carbon Emissions and Climate Change Policy . London: Price Waterhouse Coopers

25. World Business Counc. for Sustain. Dev. 2005. Pathways to 2050 Energy and Climate Change. Geneva.

26. Int. Energy Agency. 2005. World Energy Outlook 2005. Paris

27. Royal Dutch/Shell. 2005. The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025. Washington, DC: Inst. for Int. Econ.

28. German Advis. Counc. on Global Change. 2004. World in Transition: Towards Sustainable Energy Systems. London: Earthscan

29. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040. Brussels

30. Aitken DW, Billman LL, Bull SR. 2004. The climate stabilization challenge: can renewable energy sources meet the target?. Renew. Energy World 7(6):56-69

31. Raskin P, Banuri T, Gallopin G, Gutman P, Hammond A, et al. 2002. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Report of the Global Scenario Group. Boston: Stockholm Environ. Inst.

32. Royal Dutch/Shell. 2001. Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050. London

33. Nakicenovic N, ed. 2000. Energy scenarios. See Ref. 6, pp. 333-66

34. Nakicenovic N, Gr邦bler A, McDonald A, eds. 1998. Global Energy Perspectives. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

35. Royal Dutch/Shell. 1996. The Evolution of the World＊s Energy Systems. London

36. Johansson TB, Kelly H, Reddy AKN, Williams RH, eds. 1993. Renewable Energy: Sources of Fuels and Electricity. Washington, DC: Island Press

Europe Scenarios

37. EC Directorate-General for Environ. (DG Env). 2006. Economic Analysis of Reaching a 20% Share of Renewable Energy Sources in 2020. Brussels

38. EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport (DG Tren). 2006. Trends to 2030 每 Update 2005. European Energy and Transport Scenarios on Key Drivers. Brussels

39. EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport (DG Tren). 2006. European Energy and Transport. Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables. Brussels

40. European Parliament ITRE. 2006. Security of Energy Supply - the Potentials and Reserves of Various Energy Source, Technologies Furthering Self-Reliance and the Impact of Policy Decisions. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2005-70. DG Internal Policies of the Union. Policy Department Econ. and Scientific Policy. Brussels

41. European Solar Thermal Technology Platform. 2006. Solar Thermal Vision 2030. Brussels: ESTTP

42. EurEnDel. 2004. Technology and Social Visions for Europe＊s Energy Future: a Europe-wide Delphi Study. Final report of EurEnDel project. Berlin: Inst. for Future Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT)

43. Oeko-Institut. 2006. The Vision Scenario for the European Union. Project sponsored by Greens/EFA Group in the European Parliament. Freiburg, Ger. [Annotation: Advanced scenario for the EU with highest renewables share by 2030.]

44. European Environ. Agency. 2005. Climate Change and a European Low- carbon Energy System. EEA Report No 1/2005. Copenhagen.

45. Greenpeace Int. 2005. Energy Revolution 每 A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25. Brussels

46. Ragwitz M, Schleich J, Huber C, Resch G, Faber T, et al. 2005. Analyses of the EU Renewable Energy Sources' Evolution up to 2020 (FORRES 2020). Karlsruhe, Ger.: Fraunhofer Inst.

47. Wuppertal Inst. 2005. Target 2020 - Policies and Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the EU. Report on behalf of WWF Europe. Wuppertal, Germany

48. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy Target for Europe 每 20% by 2020. Brussels

United States Scenarios

49. Kutscher CF, ed. 2007. Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.: Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030. Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Soc.

50. Greenpeace Int. and European Renew. Energy Counc. (EREC). 2007. Energy Revolution 每 A Blueprint for Solving Global Warming -- United States Report. Amsterdam

51. US Energy Information Administration. 2006. Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2030. DOE/EIA-0383(2006). Washington, DC

52. Bailie A, Bernow S, Castelli B, O'Connor P, Romm J. 2003. The Path to Carbon-Dioxide-Free Power: Switching to Clean Energy in the Utility Sector. Washington, DC: The Center for Energy and Climate Solutions; Boston: Tellus Inst.

53. Clemmer S, Donovan D, Nogee A, Deyette J. 2001. Clean Energy Blueprint: A Smarter National Energy Policy for Today and the Future. Boston: Union of Concerned Scientists

54. Brown MA, Levine MD, Short W, Koomey JG. 2001. Scenarios for a clean energy future. Energy Policy 29(14):1179每96

55. Interlaboratory Working Group. 2000. Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future. NREL-TP-620-29379. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Berkeley, Calif.: Lawrence Berkeley Natl. Lab.; Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.

Japan Scenarios

56. Citizens＊ Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios (COMPASS). 2004. Towards a Sustainable Energy SocietyㄩAlternative Scenarios for the Future of Our Energy, Environment, and Economy. Tokyo: Inst. for Sustain. Energy Policies

57. Fujino J. 2004. Japan low carbon society modeling study: Results of first Japan-UK 2050 LCS workshop and further. Presentation at Quantifying Energy Scenarios of a Low Carbon Society--the Annual Energy Modeling Conf. of the UK Energy Res. Centre. December 5, Oxford, UK. Ibaraki, Japan: Natl. Inst. for Environ. Studies

China Scenarios

58. Zhang X, He J. 2005. Strategies and policies on promoting massive renewable energy development. Proc. China Renew. Energy Dev. Strategy Workshop, Tsinghua University, Beijing. Beijing: Tsinghua Univ., Inst. for Nuclear and New Energy Technologies (INET) and Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Center

59. Ni W, Johansson T. 2004. Energy for sustainable development in China. Energy Policy 32(10):1225-29

60. Kroeze C, Vlasblom J, Gupta J, Boudri C, Blok K. 2004. The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990每2020. Energy Policy 32(1):55-76

61. China Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies. 2003. Transforming coal for sustainability: a strategy for China. Report to the China Counc. for Int. Cooperation on Environ. and Dev. Energy Sustain. Dev. 7(4):5-14

62. China Energy Res. Inst. and Lawrence Berkeley Lab. 2003. China＊s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions. Berkeley, CA: LBL and Beijing: ERI

Other Developing Countries Scenarios

63. RECIPES. 2007. Project Summary: Renewable Energy Market Potential in Emerging and Developing Countries. Final report of RECIPES project. Also 114 country data reports and 15 in-depth country reports. Brussels: EC DG-Res.

64. Manzini F, Mart赤nez M. 1999. Choosing an energy future: the environmental impact of end-use technologies. Energy Policy 27(7):401-14

65. Van Buskirk R. 2006. Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa. Energy Policy 34(14):1807每17

66. Ghosh D, Shukla PR, Garg A, Ramana PV. 2002. Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies . Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 6(6):481每512

67. Grover RB, Chandra S. 2007. Scenario for growth of electricity in India. Energy Policy. In press

68. The Energy and Res. Inst. (TERI). 2006. National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030. New Delhi: TERI Press

69. Asia-Pacific Energy Res. Center (APERC). 2004. New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region: Prospects for Electricity Generation. Tokyo

Other Visions/Perspectives

70. Smil V. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press

71. Scheer H. 2002. The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future. London: Earthscan

72. Patterson W. 1999. Transforming Electricity: The Coming Generation of Change. London: Earthscan

Emissions Scenarios

73. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

74. Natl. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Center for Global Environ. Res. 2007. Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios database. Ibaraki, Japan

Scenarios and Modeling

75. McDowall W, Eames M. 2006. Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature. Energy Policy 34(11):1236每1250 [Annotation: An excellent review of 40 studies with useful analytical frameworks for energy futures.]

76. Craig PP, Gadgil A, Koomey JG. 2002. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 27:83-118

77. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Energy Futures: The Role of Research and Technological Development. Brussels

78. Nakata T. 2004. Energy-economic models and the environment. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 30(4):417每75

79. Huntington HG, Weyant JP. 2002. Modeling energy markets and climate change policy . In Encyclopedia of Energy. San Diego: Academic Press/Elsevier Sci.

80. Ghanadan R, Koomey JG. 2005. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California . Energy Policy 33(9):1117每1142 [Annotation: Illustrative example of defining, describing, and analyzing scenarios.]

81. Schwartz P. 1991. The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.

82. IEA. 2000. Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy. Paris

EU Countries Scenarios

83. Fischedick M, Nitsch J. 2002. Long-term scenarios for a sustainable energy future in Germany. Study conducted for the German Environ. Fac. (English version). Stuttgart: Wuppertal Inst.

84. Treffers DJ, Faaij APC, Spakman J, Seebregts A. 2005. Exploring the possibilities for setting up sustainable energy systems for the long term: two visions for the Dutch energy system in 2050. Energy Policy 33(13):1723-1743 [Annotation: Revealing and comprehensive carbon-constrained country-level scenarios.]

Share of Primary Energy

85. Lenssen N, Flavin C. 1996. Sustainable energy for tomorrow's world: the case for an optimistic view of the future. Energy Policy 24(9):769-781

86. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Key World Energy Statistics. Paris

87. Goldemberg J. 2006. The promise of clean energy. Energy Policy 34(15):2185每90

88. Int. Energy Agency. 2007. Renewables in Global Energy Supply: An IEA Fact Sheet. Paris

89. Goldemberg J, Coelho ST. 2004. Renewable energy〞traditional biomass vs. modern biomass . Energy Policy 32(6):711每14

EU Targets

90. EC. 2007. EU-Energy Policy Data SEC(2007) 12. Brussels

91. EC. 2007. Renewable energy road map: renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future . COM(2006) 848. Brussels

92. EC. 2007. Renewable energy road map: renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future. Impact assessment. SEC(2006) 1719. Brussels

93. EC. 2007. Green Paper follow-up action: report on progress in renewable electricity. COM(2006) 849. Brussels

94. EC. 2006. A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy (※Green Paper§). COM(2006) 105 final. Brussels

95. EC. 2005. Biomass action plan. COM(2005) 628 final. Brussels

EU Countries Scenarios

96. Greenpeace Int. and European Renew. Energy Counc. (EREC). 2006. Energy Revolution 每 A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future 每 Netherlands Report. Amsterdam

97. Hennicke P. 2004. Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supply. Energy Policy 32(15):1673-78

98. Nitsch J, ed. 2004. Ecologically Optimized Extension of Renewable Energy Utilization in Germany. Summary Report in English. Berlin: German Federal Ministry for Environ., Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

99. Oniszk-Pop?awska A, Rogulska M, Wi?niewski G. 2003. Renewable-energy developments in Poland to 2020. 2003. Applied Energy 76(1-3):101-10

100. European Environ. Agency. 2000. Cloudy crystal balls. An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models . Environmental issues series No 17. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities

Country Targets (Other)

101. New Zealand Ministry Econ. Dev. 2006. Powering our Future: New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050. Wellington

102. South Africa Department of Minerals and Energy. 2003. White Paper on Renewable Energy. Pretoria/Tshwane

100% Scenarios

103. Kendall HW, Nadis SJ. 1980. Energy Strategies: Toward a Solar Future. Report of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger

104. Le Groupe de Bellevue, ALTER. 1978. A study of a long-term energy future for France based on 100% renewable energies . Reprinted in The Yearbook of Renewable Energies 1995 (1995). London: James and James

105. Johansson TB, Steen P. 1979. Solar Sweden: an outline to a renewable energy system . Stockholm: Secretariat for Future Studies

106. H?fele W, Anderer J, McDonald A, Nakice防ovi? N. 1981. Energy in a Finite World. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger

107. German Bundestag. 2002. Nachhaltige Energieversorgung unter den Bedingungen der Globalisierung und Liberalisierung . Report of the Enquette Commission. Berlin

108. Lehmann H. 2003. Energy Rich Japan . Aachen: Inst. for Sustain. Solutions and Innovations (ISUSI)

109. Int. Network for Sustain. Energy (INFORSE). 2006. Global Vision 2050 每 100% Renewables . Hjortshoj, Denmark

110. Sorensen B. 1999. Low energy consumption scenarios. Presented at IPCC Expert Meeting on Mitigation and Stabilization Scenarios, Copenhagen, 2-4 June. Roskilde, Denmark: Roskilde Univ.

Long-term Potential and Growth Rates

111. Int. Energy Agency. 2005. Variability of Wind Power and Other Renewables: Management Options and Strategies. Paris

112. Berndes G, Hoogwijk M, van den Broek R. 2003. The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies. Biomass and Bioenergy 25(1):1-28

113. Fischer G, Schrattenholzer L. 2001. Global bioenergy potentials through 2050. Biomass and Bioenergy 20(3):151-159

114. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Biofuels in the European Union: A Vision for 2030 and Beyond. Final report of the Biofuels Res. Advis. Counc. Brussels

Distributed Power Generation

115. Bradford T. 2006. Solar Revolution. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press

116. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. A Vision for Photovoltaic Technology. Report by the PV Technology Res. Advis. Counc. Brussels

117. Dunn S. 2000. Micropower: The Next Electrical Era. Worldwatch Paper 151. Washington, DC: Worldwatch

118. Borbely A-M, Kreider JF. 2001. Distributed Generation: The Power Paradigm for the New Millennium. New York: CRC

119. Lovins AB. 2002. Small is Profitable. Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Inst.

120. Patterson W. 2003/2004. Keeping the lights on. Working papers 1-3. London: Chatham House

121. Brown LR. 2006. Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton

122. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Smart Grids: Vision and Strategy for Europe＊s Electricity Networks of the Future. European Technology Platform. Brussels

123. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Towards Smart Power Networks: Lessons learned from European research FP5 projects. Brussels

124. Eiffert P, Kiss GJ. 2000. Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Designs for Commercial and Institutional Structures: a Sourcebook for Architects. NREL/BK-520-25272. Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.

125. Eiffert P. 2003. Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems. NREL/TP-550-31977. Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.

126. Int. Energy Agency. 2002. Potential for Building Integrated Photovoltaics. PV Power Systems Prog. Report PVPS T7-4. Paris

127. Int. Energy Agency. 2002. Distributed Generation in Liberalized Electricity Markets. Paris

128. See Ref. 75, p.1245

Hydrogen Combined with Renewables

129. Ramesohl S, Merten F. 2006. Energy system aspects of hydrogen as an alternative fuel in transport . Energy Policy 34(11):1251每59

130. Dunn S. 2001. Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System. Worldwatch Paper 157. Washington, DC: Worldwatch

131. Hoffman P. 2001. Tomorrow's Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planet. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press

132. Rifkin J. 2002. The Hydrogen Economy. New York: Jeremy P. Tarcher/Putnam

133. Romm, JJ. 2004. Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction and the Race to Save the Climate. Washington, DC: Island Press

134. Heinberg R. 2004. Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. Gabriola Island, BC, Canada: New Soc. Publishers

135. Scheer H. 2007. Energy Autonomy: The Economic, Social, and Technological Case for Renewable Energy. London: Earthscan [Annotation: Politically-oriented treatment of imperatives, barriers, and possibilities, with strong critique of status-quo.]

Advanced Storage Technologies

136. EC Directorate-General for Res. and Directorate-General for Transport and Energy. 2003. Clean, Safe and Efficient Energy for Europe: Impact assessment of non-nuclear energy projects implemented under the Fourth Framework Programme. Synthesis Report. Brussels

137. Eurosolar. 2006. Proc. First Int. Renew. Energy Storage Conf.: Towards Energy Autonomy with the Storage of Renew. Energies. Science Park Gelsenkirchen, Ger. Bonn: World Counc. for Renew. Energy and Eurosolar

138. Rechsteiner R. 2006. Management of renewable energies and storage systems每the Swiss case. See Ref. 137

139. Lund PD, Paatero JV. 2006. Energy storage options for improving wind power quality. Presented at Nordic Wind Power Conf., 22-23 May, Espoo, Finland

140. Gonzalez A, 車 Gallach車ir B, McKeogh E, Lynch K. 2004. Study of Electricity Storage Technologies and Their Potential to Address Wind Energy Intermittency in Ireland. Cork: Natl. Univ. Ireland, Depart.Civil Environ. Engineering

141. Greennet. 2003. Cost and Technical Opportunities for Electricity Storage Technologies. Report for the European Commission Directorate-General of Energy and Transport. Chineham, UK: IT Power

Nuclear Power and Carbon Capture and Storage

142. Turton H, Barreto L. 2006. Long-term security of energy supply and climate change. Energy Policy 34(15):2232每50

143. Saddler H, Diesendorf M, Denniss R. 2007. Clean energy scenarios for Australia. Energy Policy. In press

Page updated November 30, 2007
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